A New Poll Just Revealed that a Key Demographic that Voted for Trump is Beginning to Withdraw Its Support

Mark Wilson/Getty Images, Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Back in 2016, Donald Trump managed to eke out an Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton by siphoning off some voters who had supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

As the country heads into the 2020 election, that key demographic appears to be souring on Trump, according to a new survey by the Democracy Fund's Voter Study Group.

The poll of 6,779 Americans found that while most people's opinions of Trump have remained unchanged since 2016, "only Obama-Trump voters have had a significant change in their view of President Trump over the last two years."

The poll has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.

In 2016, "more than 8 in 10 (85 percent) Obama-Trump voters held a “favorable” view of the president," the poll found.

"While a majority of Obama-Trump voters still have a favorable opinion of the president, no other voting group has shifted away from the president more in the last two years."

That support has eroded down 19 percentage points to 66 percent. Though they only make up five percent of the electorate, Obama-Trump voters are "disproportionately white, and non-college educated," and "likely to be well distributed geographically for the purpose of electoral impact," the survey's author and Voter Study Fund research director, Robert Griffin, wrote.

Voter Study Group

This could swing the election back to the Democrats if white blue-collar voters - particularly in the rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin - abandon Trump. Those four states combined carry a hefty 64 Electoral College votes.

"Even these shifts that look like they’re pretty small, well, the election margins were pretty small,” Griffin said.

Just 10,704 in Michigan, 22,748 in Wisconsin, and 44,292 in Pennsylvania separated Trump and Clinton on election night.

People are tired.

Still, the poll did show that Trump's approval ratings, though technically underwater, have remained relatively stable throughout his first term.

"More than half (56 percent) of Americans say they have an “unfavorable” opinion of the president. Just 4 in 10 (40 percent) report a “favorable” opinion," the poll showed. "These numbers have only changed slightly since the 2016 VOTER Survey, when 52 percent held an “unfavorable” opinion and 44 percent held a “favorable” opinion."

This is despite the never-ending scandals and the administration's reliably cartoonish incompetence.

One key difference now, however, is that there are twice as many people who hold a "very unfavorable" opinion of Trump than those with a "very favorable" view (49 percent to 25 percent).

Trump is likely facing an uphill battle next year, despite the advantage of incumbency.

“If you added up every single person who ever had a nice word to say about Trump, you’re still only talking about half the country,” Griffin said. “That’s not great territory to be in as you start a presidential campaign.”

But the Trump campaign insists it holds the advantage over the huge field of ambitious Democrats.

“We intend to win the states President Trump won in 2016 and feel we can expand the map in 2020 to states where he came close the first time,” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh said in an email to The Hill. “Across the Midwest, President Trump has an excellent record to tout to blue-collar union members.”

Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Questions continue to be raised about the mental and physical health of President Donald Trump.

Slurred or rambling speech has been caught on camera at MAGA rallies and other presidential events.

Keep reading... Show less
Fox News

The House Judiciary Committee voted Friday morning to bring abuse of power and obstruction of Congress articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump to the House floor for a full vote.

The Democratic House is expected to vote in favor of the articles as well, officially impeaching Trump and putting him on trial in the Republican Senate.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is already sparking concerns about the trial's fairness with comments he made Thursday night on far-Right Fox News host Sean Hannity's show.

Keep reading... Show less
MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images // Win McNamee/Getty Images

South Bend Mayor and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg got an awkward shoutout from President Donald Trump, who's nicknamed the candidate "Alfred E. Neuman" after the Mad Magazine character.

It happened at the President's recent rally in Hershey, Pennsylvania.

Keep reading... Show less
Mark Wilson/Getty Images // DC Comics

"Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos..."

Heath Ledger's Joker says this in 2008's The Dark Knight but it could also apply to the presidency of Donald Trump. From defying subpoenas, introducing sweeping policy changes to his own staff through tweets, fostering a revolving-door administration, abruptly deserting allies, and, of course, the ceaseless bullying.

The President and the Clown Prince of Crime have both been agents of some degree of chaos.

So it may not come as a surprise that the Joker joins the campaign of a Trump-like character in the latest issue of Dark Knight Returns: The Golden Child.

Keep reading... Show less
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The House Judiciary Committee is expected to vote in favor of articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump on Friday, teeing up a full House vote for next week.

The move comes after weeks of hearings with Republicans shouting in defense of the President and against the efforts to hold him accountable for soliciting foreign assistance in an election.

Keep reading... Show less
Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images; Matthew Horwood/Getty Images

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has some experience with impeachment. While her husband Bill was President, the Independent Counsel investigation led by Ken Starr probed every aspect of her life before and during her time in the White House as well as her husbands.

While Starr failed to find any criminal wrongdoing by the First Lady, he did after his four year investigation discover her husband's extramarital affair with a White House intern.

Keep reading... Show less