After a wave of crucial elections on Tuesday, President Donald Trump took to Twitter to brag about the strength of his endorsements.
5 for 5!— Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump)1533738674.0
The Republicans have now won 8 out of 9 House Seats, yet if you listen to the Fake News Media you would think we ar… https://t.co/o78kNMeoCL— Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump)1533741266.0
And then made a wild generalization about the power of his support:
As long as I campaign and/or support Senate and House candidates (within reason), they will win! I LOVE the people,… https://t.co/RY6QtbDhp4— Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump)1533741955.0
The statement is questionable at best, of course. Tuesday night's elections were far more alarming than uplifting for Republicans.
The special election for Ohio's 12th district--a district Donald Trump won by double digits in 2016--remains too close to call despite millions of dollars, swathes of campaign ads, a presidential visit, and other Republican efforts to elect Troy Balderson to the House of Representatives. It was supposed to be an easy win for Republicans, but now a conclusive result remains delayed. Special elections elsewhere continue to shift toward Democrats.
For context, here are the special elections we’ve had so far in the Trump era. Dems have overperformed … well, ever… https://t.co/H3aHDgr5z9— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight)1533685920.0
Interesting. 3,435 provisional ballots outstanding. It looks like potential recount territory, though. Fascinating… https://t.co/iICIHlH0a9— CourtneyG (@CourtneyG)1533697746.0
Not to mention the fact that the majority of the elections he is touting from yesterday are Republican primaries. He has proven his strength as a kingmaker in Republican primaries, it's once they go up against Democrats where his support is less sure.
So his claim that a "Giant Red Wave" is coming is questionable at best. Although that didn't keep him from tweeting it again later in the day:
RED WAVE!— Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump)1533754299.0
However, Trump's endorsements even before Tuesday have hardly had the impact of a Midas touch.
Candidates endorsed by Trump have often failed.
Trump endorsed alleged pedophile Roy Moore in Alabama's special election last year. When Moore lost, Trump seemed to admit that his endorsements aren't indestructible.
The reason I originally endorsed Luther Strange (and his numbers went up mightily), is that I said Roy Moore will n… https://t.co/DcgJPmLTXy— Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump)1513164124.0
In March of this year, Democrat Conor Lamb won his election to represent Pennsylvania's 18th district in the House. It was a district Trump won by 20 points in 2016.
Democrats were swift to remind the President that a red wave is far from likely:
Voting numbers from the Iowa primary once again illustrate there is no red wave, only a blue wave. This is what you… https://t.co/xjUVBC9I24— Andrew Wortman (@Andrew Wortman)1533620823.0
Trump: "There might be a red wave in November!" Yeah, from your pants actually catching on fire...— Craig Rozniecki (@Craig Rozniecki)1533580384.0
Primaries and special elections are but early indicators of the possible directions the 2018 midterms could go, but so far, primary results have stayed promising for Democrats. If a blue wave does occur, it would set the stage for Democrats' revenge and possibly even impeachment proceedings.