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New Analysis of What Really Happened in the 2018 Elections Could Spell Trouble for Donald Trump in 2020

GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN - MARCH 28: President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at the Van Andel Arena on March 28, 2019 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Grand Rapids was the final city Trump visited during his 2016 campaign. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

The 2018 midterm elections gave Democrats everywhere hope as Democrats took back the House of Representatives with the most diverse body of representatives in the house's history.

While much of this has been credited to the increased turnout of a motivated Democratic base, a recent study from New Catalist indicates that Americans who voted for President Donald Trump in the 2016 election voted for Democrats in 2018.


The report states:

"When it comes to turnout, the composition of the electorate roughly 'broke even' with 2016, much different than the past two midterms. But 'breaking even' doesn’t explain the amount and geography of gains that Democrats saw. A large portion of gains came from people who voted in both elections, switching from supporting Trump in 2016 to supporting Democrats in 2018. We show some of the math behind this, including how that conclusion changes in different areas of the country."

The report surmises this from trends among white college voters who leaned Republican in 2016 before shifting to Democrat in the midterms two years later.

Yair Ghitza, the study's leader, elaborated on the findings on Twitter.

If this trend continues into 2020, Trump could be in trouble.