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CNN Political Prediction Markets Weigh in on Election Day

CNN Political Prediction Markets Weigh in on Election Day
(COMBO) This combination of pictures created on October 09, 2016 shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri on October 9, 2016. / AFP / Paul J. Richards

According to CNN's Political Prediction Market, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency rose from 78 percent last week to 91 percent one day before the election. The Political Prediction Market, administered by the company Pivit, is an online game which functions like a virtual market and allows Internet users to predict the outcome of this election. (Last night, CNN's Poll of Polls showed Clinton leading Trump by a 4-point margin, 46 percent to 42 percent.) The market-based predictor noted that last week's drop aside, Clinton's odds have always been greater than those of Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.

The analysis reveals that Clinton's odds stood at 95 percent on October 20. Her numbers dipped slightly––to 90 percent––on October 26, and continued their daily decline until October 31. On Halloween, right after FBI Director James Comey announced to Congress that the FBI had discovered more emails related to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while Secretary of State, Clinton's odds stood at 78 percent. Clinton's numbers rebounded, however, after Comey told authorities that he stood by the decision he made in July not to pursue charges against her. Reports indicated that many of the emails on the laptop were, in fact, duplicates of correspondence the FBI had already examined.

The live odds show that the Republican party has a 9 percent chance of winning the presidency to the Democratic party's 91 percent. But users agree that Republicans will retain control of the House: Their odds stand at 96 percent to the Democrats' 4 percent. The odds that Democrats will regain control of the Senate stands at 79 percent to the Republican party's 21 percent.

Clinton's odds of receiving at least 200 electoral votes, the analysis shows, stand at 99 percent on Election Day morning. The odds that she will receive at least 250 electoral votes stand at 97 percent to Trump's 13 percent. The odds of Clinton receiving at least 300 electoral votes are only slightly lower, at 92 percent. In contrast, the odds Trump will receive at least 300 electoral votes stand at 3 percent.