During her show last night, Rachel Maddow showed a chart of the number of candidates from each party challenging incumbents for a House seat and the number of Democrats who are in the running for the 2018 election. They suggest, she says, that a blue wave of opposition to Trumpian policies is building across the nation.
Maddow cited data from a July report by Michael J. Malbin, the co-founder and Executive Director of the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute. That report showed that in June, a mere six months since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, “209 Democratic challengers had registered with the FEC and raised at least $5,000,” a number that “more than doubled the previous high mark since 2003.” By contrast, Republicans had 78 challengers with at least $5,000 in 2009, a year before they gained 63 seats in the 2010 midterm elections.
“The early GOP challengers in 2009 foreshadowed the party’s regaining majority control,” Malbin wrote at the time. “The question is whether the same will hold true for the Democrats in 2018
Here is the original chart based on data from the Brookings Institution:
— Adam Best (@adamcbest) July 25, 2017
Here is the updated chart, which shows the number of House challengers by party as of September 30, 2017:
Chart: Number of House challengers by party as of September 30, 2017 pic.twitter.com/MzSBqJ74nc
— Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) December 19, 2017
“The Democrats have pulled even further away from the Republicans,” Maddow said last night. “It’s now 309 Democratic challengers compared to 71 Republicans, five-and-a-half times more Democratic challengers saying “Game on, I’m in!” when compared to Republicans. If that lopsided count of candidates in 2009 was a harbinger of Republican domination in 2010, what does that lopsided count this year tell you about what’s coming up next year? Midterms are only 323 days away.”
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