As the government shutdown enters its 27th day––it shattered the record for the longest shutdown in American history this past Saturday––a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds that President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dipped and that he’s losing support from his base.
The poll of 1,023 adults, conducted from January 10 to 13, showed that the president’s approval rating is at 39 percent with disapproval at 53%, a net loss of 7% since December.
The most surprising finding in the poll is that his decline in approval comes at the expense of traditionally supportive groups including Republicans, evangelicals, suburban men, and white men and women without college degrees. All of these groups were key to his victory during the 2016 presidential election: Losing them could spell trouble for the president’s chances at re-election in 2020.
NEW: President Trump's approval rating has slipped to 39 percent, and he's lost some approval among key portions of his base, including white evangelicals and suburban men, according to a new NPR/@NewsHour /Marist poll. https://t.co/XEDElknOWI pic.twitter.com/Yx6jlg7pMK
— NPR Politics (@nprpolitics) January 17, 2019
Ten percent of Republicans say they disapprove of the president’s overall performance, up from seven percent in December 2018. The number of white men without college degrees who said they approved of the president’s performance has also slipped, down to 50 percent this month from 56 percent last month.
White evangelicals also reported a dip in support to 66 percent this month from 73 percent last month. Among suburban men, the president is experiencing a disapproval rate of 48 percent, up from 39 percent last month. And among white women without college degrees, approval ratings have slipped to 43 percent this month compared to 54 percent last month.
Key parts of Trump's base are slipping in their support for the president. Our @NPR @nprpolitics @NewsHour @maristpoll finds the president's approval below 40% again, but look at where the shift is coming from… https://t.co/Lc3mvc5Ep1 pic.twitter.com/WI566i6FDI
— Domenico Montanaro (@DomenicoNPR) January 17, 2019
The responses were even more sobering once poll-takers asked Republicans and Republican-leaning independents if they wanted another Republican to challenge Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020. The responses were split roughly down the middle: 44 percent of those surveyed said that they would want to see another Republican challenge the president during the next election. 45 percent said no. 11 percent said they were “unsure.”
Whoa. In crosstabs of new NPR/PBS/Marist poll (p. 33). Asked of Reps and Rep-leaning independents: Do you want another Republican to challenge Donald Trump for the Rep nomination in 2020? 44% yes, 45% no, 11% unsure. Among 45 years and under: 51%-34%-15%.https://t.co/kIwVA9ldrM
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) January 17, 2019
“For the first time, we saw a fairly consistent pattern of having his base showing evidence of a cracking,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. “Don’t know if that’s temporary — tied to the government shutdown — or a broader problem the president is having.”
Miringoff noted that the president has an uphill battle in 2020: Just 76 percent of Trump supporters, 69 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of white evangelicals say they’ll support his re-election effort.
“The president has had his base and not much else and when you look ahead to the election … he enters with a significant disadvantage,” he said. “His re-election prospects would definitely be in jeopardy at this point.”