As we approach week 10 of the NFL season, we can tell that winter is near. 11 of the 14 NFL contests this weekend have an over/under below 46.5 points (a common over/under figure). This should lead to a lower scoring week across the NFL, which translates to lower scores in our daily fantasy contests. Week 10 brings us some of the league’s most high powered offenses on bye weeks. Philadelphia, Oakland, Kansas City are not playing this week, bringing credence to the lower Vegas totals.
During this article you will often see references to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) a metric from Football Outsiders that measures a team or players efficiency by comparing results from every play to a league average based on situation and opponent. For example, if an offense runs for 4 yards on a 3rd and 3, it will be weighted and graded more favorably than if an offense runs for 4 yards on 3rd and 15. DVOA is a better way to compare team’s offenses vs opposing defenses than more traditional stats like yards gained and allowed.