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Nate Silver Just Put the Democrats' Accomplishment in the MIdterm Elections Into Historic Perspective, and It's Actually a Really Impressive Feat
Whoa.
Five Thirty-Eight Editor-In-Chief Nate Silver crunched the numbers and discovered that Democrats' victory in the midterms is much bigger than conventional wisdom suggests.
Nationwide, Democratic U.S. House candidates raked in more than 60 million votes, which Silver notes is comparable to what recent Republican presidential candidates have gained nationwide.
Silver's point: that just doesn't happen.
"Trump got 63m votes, Romney 61m, McCain 60m," Silver tweeted Monday. "Dem votes for the House this year should be very close to that range."
Trump got 63m votes, Romney 61m, McCain 60m. Dem votes for the House this year should be very close to that range.— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1542559002.0
This is unprecedented, according to Silver's analysis.
"There's not any precedent for an opposition party coming this close to matching the president's vote total from 2 years earlier," Silver explained. "The closest to an exception was when Democratic House candidates in 1970 got 92% of Nixon's vote total from 1968."
There's not any precedent for an opposition party coming this close to matching the president's vote total from 2 y… https://t.co/ZWYw2ki7lC— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1542560528.0
Silver argues these astounding numbers are indicative of the deep unpopularity of President Donald Trump. The other factors fueling Democrats' momentum, Silver believes, are: "1) Trump was elected despite losing the popular vote; 2) D's won by a big margin this year and 3) Turnout was VERY high."
Silver also said the media have yet to accept how low Trump's poll numbers are, again emphasizing that Democrats got more than 15 million more votes in 2018 than Republicans did when they swept the 2010 midterm elections.
About 60 million people turned out to vote for Democrats for the House this year. That is a **crazy** number. (Repu… https://t.co/8mm8nFoEus— Nate Silver (@Nate Silver) 1542561124.0
@JamesKirkLives @NateSilver538 Yes but that’s because he’s not at 47% in any aggregate.— Dan Polovina (@Dan Polovina) 1542561124.0
Trump is less popular today than President Barack Obama was at the same point in his first term.
@danpolovina @JamesKirkLives @NateSilver538 Correct. At this point in his presidency, Obama had 45% approval compar… https://t.co/rfju58XGE8— I collect spores, molds, and fungi (@I collect spores, molds, and fungi) 1542568350.0
@danpolovina @JamesKirkLives @NateSilver538 Correct. At this point in his presidency, Obama had 45% approval compar… https://t.co/rfju58XGE8— I collect spores, molds, and fungi (@I collect spores, molds, and fungi) 1542568350.0
But unlike Obama, Trump was never popular to begin with.
@danpolovina @JamesKirkLives @NateSilver538 Correct. At this point in his presidency, Obama had 45% approval compar… https://t.co/rfju58XGE8— I collect spores, molds, and fungi (@I collect spores, molds, and fungi) 1542568350.0
@Merz @JamesKirkLives @NateSilver538 What’s most striking about Trump’s approval is that he has basically never bee… https://t.co/83fqTpczhX— Dan Polovina (@Dan Polovina) 1542569304.0
@danpolovina @Merz @JamesKirkLives @NateSilver538 He never even tried, shameful— kjd (@kjd) 1542597532.0
People who disapprove of Trump are hopeful that the trend continues into 2020, when the presidency, the entire U.S. House, and 33 Senate seats are up for grabs.
@LeaveCrosscheck @NateSilver538 @kenkircher1 Indeed...Trump voters and the media have the impression that America l… https://t.co/1eeK3QUQPt— Peter Wader (@Peter Wader) 1542561524.0
@Pksoze @LeaveCrosscheck @NateSilver538 @kenkircher1 Fingers crossed.— JJ (@JJ) 1542576650.0
Some, however, think that Trump's illusions about his own popularity and competence will only continue to help Democrats.
As Silver pointed out, Republicans got clobbered in California, and Trump deserves credit.
@NateSilver538 I hope Trump keeps thinking he's the most popular president in history and thus doesn't change his l… https://t.co/sCoYQj7G9H— Paul Wu-Tang Clan ⚛︎👨🏻🏫 (@Paul Wu-Tang Clan ⚛︎👨🏻🏫) 1542561269.0
@NateSilver538 Case in point. And the GOP wonders how they lost the entirety of Orange County to Democrats in the H… https://t.co/dOupmWl0Ql— Paul Wu-Tang Clan ⚛︎👨🏻🏫 (@Paul Wu-Tang Clan ⚛︎👨🏻🏫) 1542566762.0
@NateSilver538 The good news for Dems is that he will only double down and dig in deeper. So, intensity will remain… https://t.co/UkLDKkuMJA— KB Rockefeller (@KB Rockefeller) 1542561270.0
In conservative Orange County, for example, Democrats claimed victory in all seven Congressional races. So far, Democrats have picked up a total of 38 U.S House seats.
Others believe the media is still too friendly to Trump, and that the normalization of his extreme rhetoric is dangerous.
@NateSilver538 Whether it is the simple rating grab or more, the odd obsession of normalizing Trump voters continue… https://t.co/jiyR8USiDL— Chimera in a Coal Mine (@Chimera in a Coal Mine) 1542588955.0
@Coalminetweety @NateSilver538 They are more interested in dodging being called "the liberal media" instead of "reporters of fact"— The_innkeeper (@The_innkeeper) 1542589693.0
@matthewjdowd @NateSilver538 True dat! He’s unpopular; it’s unfortunate the US press still covers him as if he is t… https://t.co/d0fW7BOub6— Globalbizdynamics (@Globalbizdynamics) 1542589107.0
Trump could be headed for a tough fight in 2020.
@joshuajgrubbs @NateSilver538 Indeed we need Nate to update Trump's popularity by state so we can project the elect… https://t.co/UMfzZQZouy— Peter Wader (@Peter Wader) 1542562451.0
@joshuajgrubbs @NateSilver538 We're all gun shy after 2016 so I get it. But I hoped these midterms shattered a lot… https://t.co/U1AHMyle20— Peter Wader (@Peter Wader) 1542563185.0
@NateSilver538 @chrislhayes It will be a long time if ever that a Republican wins the popular vote for Potus. New Y… https://t.co/QcAqSOz8yU— Tim Borchardt (@Tim Borchardt) 1542566884.0
@NateSilver538 In my opinion, he's the most vulnerable incumbent President in modern history, since George HW Bush… https://t.co/fOIeVQAUaX— Jack Jagla (@Jack Jagla) 1542561454.0
The blue wave was very real.