midterm exit poll
Exit Poll Confirms Why Donald Trump Does Deserve Credit for the Midterm Election Results, Just Not For the Reason He Thinks
Well, that explains a lot.
Last week, after a blue wave thrust Democrats into control of the U.S. House of Representatives, President Donald Trump boasted that it was he who was responsible for Republicans maintaining control of the U.S. Senate.
“Tremendous success tonight,” Trump wrote in a tweet. “Thank you to all!”
Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!— Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump) 1541564079.0
Trump also tweeted that those who "worked with me... did very well."
Those that worked with me in this incredible Midterm Election, embracing certain policies and principles, did very… https://t.co/OTUWeooDxp— Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump) 1541592471.0
Unfortunately for Trump, the data show otherwise.
In the week since the midterm, one new survey shows that Trump was indeed correct; he definitely motivated people to vote. But not for the reason he'd like to believe.
@TheAtlantic @RonBrownstein Yuge victory. Yuge. Just ask Trump.— Kim “It’s Boot-Edge-Edge” Murphy (@Kim “It’s Boot-Edge-Edge” Murphy) 1542295885.0
An Edison Research exit poll published on CNN found that Trump's popularity is far less abundant than he thinks. In the poll, Trump's overall disapproval rating was clocked at 54 percent.
When asked how they view Trump as president, 90 percent of respondents that disapprove of Trump's job performance voted for a Democratic House candidate.
Compare that to recent midterm years - 2006, 2010, and 2014 - when 82 to 84 percent of voters that disapproved of the president at the time voted for the opposition party.
"That was the worst performance for the president’s party among disapproving voters since Ronald Reagan in 1982," noted The Atlantic.
@TheAtlantic @RonBrownstein No matter the price it isn't heavy enough.— Suzanne Johnson (@Suzanne Johnson) 1542296436.0
Conversely, in those same years, voters that held approval of the president supported the party in power between 84 and 87 percent. In 2018, that number was nudged slightly upward to 88 percent.
Exit polls show consistent pattern of #GOP support among Protestants (esp. White, born-again evangelicals) & regula… https://t.co/YslqvgdP6b— Anton Sorkin ن (@Anton Sorkin ن) 1542082993.0
This is because of 21 Senate races that were electorally favorable to Trump and the Republicans. But the Atlantic notes points out that even though Republicans held the Senate, opposition to Trump drove Democrats to the polls.
"Exit polls were conducted for 21 Senate contests in which a Republican faced a Democrat. Democrats won at least 90 percent of voters who disapproved of Trump in 15 of those 21 contests, and up to 89 percent in five more. Scandal-tarred New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez was the only Democratic candidate to win a smaller share of voters who disapproved of Trump, at 79 percent."
Democrats bucked the trend in Arizona and Nevada, however, where Democrats Kyrsten Sinema and Jacky Rosen energized enough of the Democratic base to capture Republican-held seats.
@TheAtlantic @RonBrownstein Winning?— Rep. Steven Smith 🇺🇸 (@Rep. Steven Smith 🇺🇸) 1542296089.0
"That same formula in 2020 could threaten Republican Senate seats in Colorado, North Carolina, Arizona, and possibly Texas," said The Atlantic.
@TheAtlantic @RonBrownstein Republicans lost the House because 1. They had no viable ACA replacement ready after ca… https://t.co/VhcgnGPpvx— Marc V 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇹🇼 (@Marc V 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇹🇼) 1542309932.0
Beyond the Senate, however, the political landscape for Trump is bleak.
Nearly 60 percent of college-educated whites opposed Trump, along with 70 percent of non-whites. In fact, only 54 percent of white voters supported Republicans in House races across the country.
Democrats earned the votes of 90 of black voters, 69 percent of Latinx, 77 percent of Asians, and 54 percent of those who identified as "other."
@mattva1981 @TbirdTr3y_10 @JohnJamesMI Glad you asked! Hmm, @JohnJamesMI only with 8% from blacks (according to… https://t.co/M79CDnqNiM— Don’t Suicide Me, Bro (@Don’t Suicide Me, Bro) 1541703800.0
Those disillusioned white voters, typically congregated in the suburbs of large blue cities, joined forces with every other demographic to give Democrats the momentum they needed to seize the House.
Per The Atlantic:
"Democrats swept away Republicans clinging to House seats in otherwise blue metropolitan areas in and around New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Northern Virginia, Miami, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Denver, Tucson, Seattle, and the northern exurbs of Los Angeles."
Republicans also lost House seats in the normally more conservative outskirts of cities like Richmond, Charleston, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, California’s Orange County, and even Salt Lake City.
Age played a factor in Democrats' sweeping victory as well. Democrats carried the majority of voters aged 18-49, while Republicans were only able to grab ages 50 and up.
@TheAtlantic @RonBrownstein Trump is destroying the GOP brand for a generation. Nobody under 50 supports his white… https://t.co/KMk4vr8oL0— A Tree 🌹 (@A Tree 🌹) 1542296916.0
CNN: 2016 Exit Polls: https://t.co/EKGrxSOYKj CNN: 2018 Exit Polls: https://t.co/dvpKX9zxo3 Perhaps the untold sto… https://t.co/H7varULOSb— Auriandra (@Auriandra) 1542223777.0
So did education. White college graduates, non-white college graduates, and non-whites with no college degrees all broke for Democrats. Only non-college educated whites stuck with the GOP.
https://t.co/U8FnZXKcps #BLEXIT didn't happen. At all. I know, CNN, fake news. That's who does the exit polls. If… https://t.co/8bjQjnFVFU— Chester Arthur (@Chester Arthur) 1542021581.0
Parents and non-parents favored Democrats too, except for married men, 51 percent of whom sided with Republicans. Parents of all children under 18, regardless of gender, also supported Democrats.
📊 Comparing: Gender CNN: 2016 Exit Polls: https://t.co/EKGrxSOYKj CNN: 2018 Exit Polls: https://t.co/dvpKX9zxo3 Me… https://t.co/rUYe8SwxnZ— Auriandra (@Auriandra) 1542251778.0
Women vote Democrat by a margin of 59-40 percent, whereas men chose Republicans by a slim 51-47 percent.