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Democrat Conor Lamb is poised to win the special-election contest in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District against Republican Representative Rick Saccone tomorrow, according to the latest poll from Monmouth University. The poll found that Pennsylvania voters "are divided on whether recently announced steel tariffs will help or hurt the local economy, but very few say this policy will influence their vote in Tuesday’s election to fill the open House seat."

Monmouth presented three different turnout models––and Lamb, they note, is set to beat Saccone in all of them:

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