A new poll from Vanderbilt University regarding the Tennessee Senate race indicates that Republican enthusiasm following the hard-fought confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court may have been short-lived.
Democratic candidate and former governor Phil Bredesen has just a one percent lead over Republican candidate Rep. Marsha Blackburn, with the candidates at 44 and 43 percent to replace retiring Republican Senator Bob Corker. Following the Kavanaugh hearings, Blackburn saw an eight point spike in support, while Bredesen lost some Democratic backing for saying he would have voted to confirm Kavanaugh.
NEW TN-Sen poll:
— Chris Cillizza (@CillizzaCNN) October 18, 2018
Previous polls have shown Bredesen trailing Blackburn by a wide margin and many Republicans believed that voter enthusiasm for Kavanaugh’s nomination and subsequent confirmation – combined with the fact that Tennessee hasn’t had a Democratic senator since the 90’s – would assure victory for Blackburn.
Now, some believe that this enthusiasm may not last until election day on November 6.
This is after many polls showed Blackburn on top. The Kavanaugh effect has dropped. And I still think Trump will say & do things to cause every candidate's numbers to slide for the GOP. https://t.co/KOqWFgbMYZ
— Snarkasm Practitioner (@SaxonThegn) October 18, 2018
Brett is a one bump chump
— Brock (@Brockdoctor) October 19, 2018
3 possibilities —
1) it’s a lousy poll and an outlier
2) “Kavanaugh effect” that’s been helping GOP in red states is wearing off
3) people watched the debate and realized Blackburn is a frigging idiot
Probably some combination of the above. Hopefully #1 isn’t true though. https://t.co/0hoeS00olC
— NY Rangers Fan (@DarakNy) October 18, 2018
The Tenessee Senate race is @VoteMarsha 57.8% while Phil Bredesen at 55.0% I think those are the accurate numbers anyway everyone was so happy that @VoteMarsha was up tremendously after the so-called Kavanaugh bump well that effect is wearing off dramatically…
— Benjamin (@benbaca2015) October 12, 2018
While many are chalking up the sudden tightness of the race to a loss of Republican enthusiasm, others are attributing the boost for Bredesen to another national figure – and an unlikely one at that.