SECONDNEXUS
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The issue of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants is—according to President Donald Trump and the rest of his administration and supporters—so pervasive it requires a national emergency, military intervention and a multi-billion dollar border wall. But another statistical study—this time by the Marshall Project—blows holes in much of the President's rhetoric.
Their crime analysis asked:
"Is there a connection between undocumented immigrants and crime?"
Is there a connection between undocumented immigrants and crime? https://t.co/AhIVUgBDR2 https://t.co/F8gSH22QAF— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557738302.0
According to the Marshall Project report:
"It’s a widely held perception, but a new analysis finds no evidence to support it."
Of course this is old news already supported by other studies and analyses. So why does the lie endure?
Each time crime by undocumented immigrants as a major issue has been questioned or refuted, a press conference is held or news reports shared of the people impacted by the small number of undocumented immigrants who are committing crimes.
And while these exhibitions are done to garner support for the multi-billion dollar border wall along the southern border, the same is not done after another White male United States citizen commits a mass shooting, a crime with no shortage of victims.
It is the equivalent and no less effective argument as "cigarettes don't cause cancer" because everyone knows that one person who smoked a pack a day and lived to be 90. But how many other people did die of cancer?
What are the crime percentages of United States citizens versus undocumented immigrants? This counter argument is what the Marshall Project examined.
Last year the Marshall Project drew criticism for a study they did focused on immigrants and crime.
This was the story, also by @AnnaFlagg, that led to today's follow-up. (A lot of readers said: Well, what about und… https://t.co/8oGshlRvH5— The Upshot (@The Upshot) 1557765669.0
Border crisis supporters claimed the study was skewed by legal immigrants and a study of undocumented or "illegal immigrants" would show the emergency the Trump administration claims exists.
With this new perspective, The Marshall Project tried to prove border wall enthusiasts theory of undocumented immigrants and crime. But came up with the same result.
They concluded:
"[G]rowth in illegal immigration does not lead to higher local crime rates."
Last year, @AnnaFlagg dug into the myth of the criminal immigrant, looking at whether immigration drives crime. (It… https://t.co/MPeKF5Fyy6— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765374.0
They looked at statistics from 2007 to 2016, before President Trump's crackdown on crime and immigration. Crime related to undocumented immigrants was decreasing from an already low level in 2016.
Thanks to newly released estimates on undocumented immigrants by @pewresearch and crime rates published by the FBI,… https://t.co/q1vNQSt9kh— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765445.0
Much like a recovering economy, Trump also inherited a decreasing crime rate from the administration of President Barack Obama.
The Marshall Project got into the numbers and their meaning.
Let’s break down her findings. A large majority of areas recorded decreases in both violent and property crime be… https://t.co/E6GOtsvCym— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765490.0
According to @AnnaFlagg’s analysis, unauthorized immigrants have had no effect on violent crime. Violent crime ra… https://t.co/QcmQUv0GWk— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765561.0
In some cases, crime dropped with an influx of undocumented immigrants.
According to @AnnaFlagg’s analysis, unauthorized immigrants have had no effect on violent crime. Violent crime ra… https://t.co/QcmQUv0GWk— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765561.0
Dividing violent and property crime into their components of aggravated assault, robbery, murder, burglary and larc… https://t.co/hhm0eXhwSa— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765705.0
They noted the earlier analysis yielded the same result.
In her original 2018 TMP investigation with @UpshotNYT, @AnnaFlagg found that there’s no causal connection between… https://t.co/JKAnUn9CQf— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765756.0
And in this latest analysis, the data suggests that when it comes to crime, the difference between someone who is c… https://t.co/7I58GbBDkZ— The Marshall Project (@The Marshall Project) 1557765797.0
People shared the news refuting Trump's border crisis.
LOUDER for the people in the back: A New Analysis Finds NO Evidence of a Connection Between Undocumented Immigrants… https://t.co/gFB98bXJOK— Marcela E. García (@Marcela E. García) 1557761014.0
@marcela_elisa @nytimes "Widely held perception" in this case is just racism.— Barbara Reid (@Barbara Reid) 1557778741.0
@marcela_elisa @AdrienneLaw @nytimes The people who need to see this not interested in facts.— mpulse (@mpulse) 1557784539.0
@marcela_elisa @JillFilipovic @nytimes Alas facts only matter to half the country.— Robert abides... (@Robert abides...) 1557784172.0
One person asked what to do with information people refuse to hear or see. Someone had a solution though.
@marcela_elisa @cmclymer @nytimes Here is the problem with this...the people who get this don’t need evidence becau… https://t.co/SC1JzYrDxj— Jessica Ann Bradley (@Jessica Ann Bradley) 1557767796.0
@JessicaAnn1975 @marcela_elisa @cmclymer @nytimes Vote out republicans and don't give a shit about their opinions b… https://t.co/zgPGvqukbv— Brian D. (@Brian D.) 1557772124.0
And one person voiced a preference in neighbors.
@marcela_elisa @nytimes https://t.co/o7DrNcJCUL— Alan the Cat (@Alan the Cat) 1557775765.0
Other studies said the same thing, the rhetoric did not change. But what can change are the minds of the undecided.
Sharing facts still matter even if those who need them most are not receptive.