Ireland is poised to become the first country in the world to legalize gay marriage by popular vote. On Friday, May 22, voters in Ireland will be asked to consider whether “[m]arriage may be contracted in accordance with law by two persons without distinctions as to their sex.” If the polls are correct, Ireland is very likely to vote “yes”—making marriage equality the law of the land.

The “Yes” campaign is polling so well, in fact, that it has led some commentators to wonder if the polls are an accurate prediction of the vote to come. Right now, marriage equality in Ireland seems almost inevitable. According to recent polling data, the measure will win—and it will win by a landslide—with as many as 69% of Irish voters prepared to vote yes.

From an outside perspective, the polls are surprising, to say the least. After all, Ireland is known for a strong conservative Catholic tradition. First and foremost, homosexuality was still illegal in Ireland until 1993. Ireland also had a constitutional ban on divorce until 1995. Ultimately, voters overturned the ban—but that vote was close—with just a 51% majority. And although divorce is now legal in Ireland, it is still a long and difficult process that can take in excess of four to five years. Moreover, the often austere treatment of unwed mothers in Ireland has haunted the country for decades. Thousands of unwed mothers were sent to ‘church homes’—usually laundry workhouses run by religious organizations—where they would give birth to their children in secret; worse still, many children died as a result of the inhumane conditions.  The last of Ireland’s church homes, also called Magdalene laundries, did not close until 1996, and the Irish government failed to apologize for its complicity in the horrific practice until 2013.

The arguments for and against the referendum are, for the most part, fairly traditional.  The no campaign has argued that same-sex marriage deprives children of either a mother or a father; the yes campaign that marriage is a human right.  But the yes campaign has also argued that same-sex marriage aligns with traditional Irish values-- and businesses have also lent their support to the the yes campaign.

Although the “Yes” campaign seems to have an insurmountable lead, Ireland has seen other recent measures poll well and ultimately fail. A significant percentage of voters, moreover, report that they remain undecided; those votes could easily tip the scales back in favor of the “No” campaign. Yet another factor that could lead to an upset is that about 29% of those polled who said they would vote against marriage equality also admitted that they would not be comfortable discussing their views in public. That suggests that there may be naysayers who are keeping their opinions to themselves out of concern that their views are not socially acceptable. If true, it’s possible that the “Yes” campaign does not actually have the large lead the polls are predicting.

In the end, as with all contentious elections, voter turnout will likely be the deciding factor in whether marriage equality succeeds in Ireland. According to The Guardian, if turnout is high, the referendum is likely to pass. If not, it may be a long time before same-sex couples in Ireland can say “I do.”

Mark Wilson/Getty Images

President Donald Trump took the opportunity to hype his pet project—bollard fencing along the southern border—to a meeting of the National Border Patrol Council.

The NBPC—a union organization not part of the federal agency—is "the exclusive representative of approximately 18,000 Border Patrol Agents and support personnel assigned to the U.S. Border Patrol."

Keep reading...
Rich Polk/Getty Images for IMDb // Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Veteran actor and Democrat Alec Baldwin's portrayal of President Donald Trump on Saturday Night Live has garnered near-unanimous praise since the 2016 campaign (except, of course, from Trump himself).

But in a recent tweet, Baldwin reminded his followers that Trump's ascent and increasing corruption is no laughing matter.

Keep reading...
Fox Business

President Donald Trump's personal lawyer and one of the key players in the Ukraine scandal, Rudy Giuliani, is once again claiming to have proof of a Democratic scandal in Ukraine.

Once again, he's refusing to reveal it.

Keep reading...
Fox Business

Attorney General William Barr criticized President Donald Trump's tweets about Justice Department prosecutors' sentencing recommendation for Trump ally Roger Stone.

Barr—who overrode the recommendation after Trump railed against it on Twitter—said Trump's tweets made it impossible to do his job, though some people believe his words weren't to rein in Trump, but to mitigate public outrage.

Fox Host Lou Dobbs is not one of those people.

Keep reading...
Leah Millis-Pool/Getty Images // Chip Somodevilla/Getty Imageseditsharetrending_up

Americans across the country were furious when President Donald Trump fired Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman after Trump was acquitted in his impeachment trial by the Republican Senate.

Vindman complied with a congressional subpoena to testify before the House committee overseeing Trump's impeachment inquiry last year.

The career military official and Purple Heart recipient was escorted out by security along with his twin brother, an NSC official who played no part in the impeachment proceedings.

Keep reading...
ABC News

People cried foul earlier this week when the Justice Department overrode four career prosecutors to recommend a reduced sentence for former Trump campaign advisor Roger Stone.

The Department's decision came only a day after Trump railed against the prosecutors' recommendation on Twitter, leading many to believe the Department reduced the sentence recommendation because the President interceded on his ally's behalf.

All four prosecutors on the case resigned in response to the change.

Keep reading...