While voters now have their eyes set on the 2020 Presidential election, it appears that their hindsight is 20/20 as well.
A report from the Los Angeles Times has calculated the number of states who elected Republican governors and senators versus those that elected Democrats in the 2018 midterms (for those without a gubernatorial or senatorial election, it tallied the number of congressional votes).
Its conclusion? Had the midterms been a presidential election, Democrats would have gained 278 electoral college votes, surpassing the required 270 for a presidential candidate to gain victory.
The author of the report, David Lauder, explained his findings:
“I allocated the states in most cases by which party won the top statewide race or, if there wasn’t a race for Senate or governor, by which party got the largest number of votes for Congress.”
He cautioned however:
“Obviously, this doesn’t mean Trump will definitely lose his reelection. The 2020 campaign won’t simply replicate 2018.”
Nonetheless, the possibility has Democrats even more motivated.
We will take our country back from tyranny in two years.
— UCLAtino (@UclaHombre) November 9, 2018
This graphic may come in handy after the 2020 election 😎#Resist
— Kevin (@SolidGraniteNH) November 9, 2018
And there will be over 1400 more scandals by then 🙃
— gail (@gailog) November 9, 2018
It turns out that the best way to beat trumpists at their own game is to simply show up and beat them. Republicans take this opposition completely the wrong way. We need Republicans. Republicans should have a voice. Democrats welcome sane balanced opponents. Bring one next time.
— Uneven Keel (@AnUnevenKeel) November 9, 2018
If everyone votes this is what will happen in 2020
— 🇺🇸🗽 𝙉𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙞 𝙎𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙝 (@historBilia) November 9, 2018
It’s important to note that former President Barack Obama still won reelection in 2012 after losing both the Senate and House of Representatives majorities in 2010, and the upcoming Presidential election would be a national choice between two candidates instead of numerous candidates across a number of states.
That said, the rates of voter turnout and enthusiasm for Democratic candidates in this year’s midterms still paint a foreboding picture for Republicans’ prospects in 2020.
This especially applies when considering the ways in which Donald Trump’s rhetoric and antics changed the political landscape of what is acceptable and what’s not.