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REPORT: Democrats Would Have Won 278 Electoral Votes in Tuesday’s Election Versus 219 for Republicans

"A tremendous success."
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WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 13: (AFP OUT) U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters on the South Lawn before boarding Marine One at the White House on October 13, 2018 in Washington, DC. President Trump is traveling to a rally in Kentucky. (Photo by Olivier Douliery - Pool/Getty Images)

While voters now have their eyes set on the 2020 Presidential election, it appears that their hindsight is 20/20 as well.

A report from the Los Angeles Times has calculated the number of states who elected Republican governors and senators versus those that elected Democrats in the 2018 midterms (for those without a gubernatorial or senatorial election, it tallied the number of congressional votes).

Its conclusion? Had the midterms been a presidential election, Democrats would have gained 278 electoral college votes, surpassing the required 270 for a presidential candidate to gain victory.

The author of the report, David Lauder, explained his findings:

“I allocated the states in most cases by which party won the top statewide race or, if there wasn’t a race for Senate or governor, by which party got the largest number of votes for Congress.”

He cautioned however:

“Obviously, this doesn’t mean Trump will definitely lose his reelection. The 2020 campaign won’t simply replicate 2018.”

Nonetheless, the possibility has Democrats even more motivated.

It’s important to note that former President Barack Obama still won reelection in 2012 after losing both the Senate and House of Representatives majorities in 2010, and the upcoming Presidential election would be a national choice between two candidates instead of numerous candidates across a number of states.

That said, the rates of voter turnout and enthusiasm for Democratic candidates in this year’s midterms still paint a foreboding picture for Republicans’ prospects in 2020.

This especially applies when considering the ways in which Donald Trump’s rhetoric and antics changed the political landscape of what is acceptable and what’s not.

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  • Evan Brechtel

    Evan is a writer and editor based in New York. In addition to his work with Second Nexus, he freelan... keep reading