Just last week, a Washington Post/ABC poll saw President Donald Trump’s national approval rating reach the highest of his presidency. While that national approval rating has hovered in the mid-40s, a state-by-state examination of Trump’s job approval indicates that winning the 270 electoral college votes needed to take the White House for another four years may be slipping out of reach.
The data comes from the online polling firm Civiqs, which found that ten crucial states Trump took in 2016. Among them are some of the most sought-after swing states in the union: Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
New York Mag’s Ed Kilgore points out that Trump’s approval isn’t just wavering in these states, it’s sinking like a stone:
“And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire.”
He also pointed out that this wasn’t a poll of mere “adults,” but registered voters with every intention of performing their civic duty.
Recent weeks have indicated that Trump intends to polarize the country even further with heightened racist rhetoric, possibly hoping his white nationalist base will surge in turnout as it did in 2016.
If these states vote consistently with their individual job approval ratings for Trump, the electoral consequences would be damning—as evidenced in the map below.
Election night is two years away and, though Kilgore points out these trends have remained pretty consistent, everything could change. Nevertheless, the internet is cautiously hopeful that these crucial states will stay souring on Trump.
Understandably, people are skeptical, considering the stinging defeat of 2016 and the efforts to undermine the results with foreign interference and dirty campaign tactics.
Polls only have a point if we, the citizens, exercise our right to vote. A surge in Democratic turnout could be the key to making this the bluest map in over a decade.