There's enough time before the 2022 midterms that it's still either party's game, but so far the election is shaping up far differently than anyone expected a few months ago with Republicans' advantage evaporating.
It seems to all come down to reproductive choice, with unprecedented waves of newly registered female voters joining the rolls since the June 24 SCOTUS decision overturning Roe v. Wade even in the deepest-red states.
And it's put Republicans between a rock and a hard place, trying to appeal to the culture war fanaticism over abortion that is their brand, and the overwhelming support for reproductive rights by voters of both parties.
So far Republicans have chosen to respond to that conundrum with even more attacks on abortion, with Republican South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham leading the charge by proposing a stunningly unpopular nationwide 15-week abortion ban.
And the Democratic Party is ready to capitalize on Graham's all but certain miscalculation. In a new ad, the Party perfectly illustrates the stakes of this fall's election, using nothing but Graham's own misguided words.
See it below.
The ad features nothing but a quote by Graham that sums up the issue in just a few words.
Speaking about his proposed federal abortion bill, Graham said:
"If we take back the House and the Senate I can assure you we'll have a vote on our bill. If the Democrats are in charge I don't know if we'll ever have a vote on our bill."
Yep, that's about all there is to it.
The ad then concludes with a voiceover saying:
"We're the Democratic Party, and we approve this message."
On Twitter, people loved the new ad.
Republican overreach when it comes to reproductive freedom have been spelling midterms doom for many prognosticators in recent weeks. But Graham's proposed bill seems to have set even many Republicans over the edge.
Even long-time Republican fixer Roger Stone has bashed Graham, calling his bill "willful sabotage" of the GOP's chances of controlling Congress.
There's still plenty of time for them to turn things around, but so far, things aren't looking good for Republicans.